#2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem

XKCD comic, described below.
Transcript

[The comic shows a formula with a header in gray on top:]

Modified Bayes' theorem:

[The formula:]

P(H|X) = P(H) × (1 + P(C) × ( P(X|H)/P(X) - 1 ))

[Variables and functions are described also in gray:]

H: Hypothesis

X: Observation

P(H): Prior probability that H is true

P(X): Prior probability of observing X

P(C): Probability that you're using Bayesian statistics correctly


(Sourced from explainxkcd.com)

Don't forget to add another term for "probability that the Modified Bayes' Theorem is correct."

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